Projected Temperature change based on CMIP5 multi-model ensembles

Seasonal and annual multi-model ensembles of projected change (also known as anomalies) in mean temperature (°C) based on an ensemble of twenty-nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models are available for 1901-2100. Projected change in mean temperature (°C) is with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005. The 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 95th percentiles of the ensembles of projected change in mean temperature change are available for the historical time period, 1901-2005, and for emission scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for 2006-2100. 

             Twenty-year average changes in mean temperature (°C) for four time periods (2021-2040; 2041-2060; 2061-2080; 2081-2100), with respect to the reference period of 1986-2005, for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also available in a range of formats. The median projected change across the ensemble of CMIP5 climate models is provided.

             Note: Projections among climate models can vary because of differences in their underlying representation of earth system processes. Thus, the use of a multi-model ensemble approach has been demonstrated in recent scientific literature to likely provide better projected climate change information.

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Title (French) Changements de température projetés basés sur les ensembles multimodèles CMIP5
Update Frequency as_needed
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Sensitivity Level unrestricted
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Contact Person {"en": "Government of Canada; Environment and Climate Change Canada,1-800-668-6767,ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca", "fr": "Gouvernement du Canada; Environnement et Changement climatique Canada,ec.enviroinfo.ec@canada.ca"}
Contact Email ec.ccds.info-info.dscc.ec@canada.ca
Dictionnaire de données ["climatology_meterology_atmosphere"]
Open Canada Date Published 2018-09-06 00:00:00
Open Canada Date Modified
Open Canada Subject ["nature_and_environment", "science_and_technology"]
Open Canada Keywords {"en": ["Projections; climate; climate change; percentiles; ensembles; climate model; temperature; cmip5; anomaly", "Climate", "Climate change", "Weather and Climate", "Provide Climate Information Products and Services", "Expand Scientific Knowledge for Climate Monitoring and Prediction", "National (CA)", "Science and Technology Branch", "Atmospheric Science and Technology", "Unclassified"], "fr": ["projections; climat; changement climatique; percentiles; ensembles; modèle climatique; température; CMIP5; anomalie", "Climat", "Changement climatique", "Temps et climat", "Fournir des services et des produits d'information sur le climat", "Approfondir les connaissances scientifiques et formuler de nouvelles méthodes de recherche le climat et le changement climatique", "National (CA)", "Direction générale des sciences et de la technologie", "Sciences et technologie atmosphériques", "Non Classifié"]}
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