This study will analyse the potential economic impact of a lack of the Trade Continuity Agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom when the United Kingdom would no longer be a legal party to Canada-EU treaties, including CETA as of January 1, 2021. In the absence of a transitional agreement or a trade agreement between Canada and the United Kingdom, bilateral trade between the two countries would be governed by WTO rules alone, and the goods trade between Canada and the United Kingdom would be subject to WTO most-favoured nation (MFN) duties. Neither Canada nor the United Kingdom would continue to benefit from the preferential market access currently provided for under CETA.
In May 2020, the United Kingdom announced the applied MFN tariff schedule referred to as the UK Global Tariff (UKGT), which would take effect after the post-Brexit transition period. The United Kingdom’s bound tariff rates—the highest tariffs that the United Kingdom could apply—have not yet been certified at the WTO. The proposed bound tariffs are almost identical to the EU’s Common External Tariffs (CET).
The analysis that follows explores the economic implications of the two scenarios where Canada-U.K. trade reverts to MFN conditions: the U.K. applied tariffs (UKGT) and the U.K. bound tariffs (EU CET). The benefits from increased certainty for the services sectors under CETA would also be removed.